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The USD/CHF pair has made a considerable bearish retracement in the past month, as noted by James Chen “this currency pair has given back virtually all of the substantial gains that it made from mid-April to early June.”  While the pair is in a long-term downtrend, as discussed below, we still feel there is room to take a counter-trend trade on this forex pair.

First chart below shows the dollar index, which is close to an uptrend support line – our trade would be further confirmed by a coinciding bounce off this line.  Monthly chart shows the long term downtrend of the pair, however, of note is the failure of the pair to make a lower low on the last dip.  We’d like to see a solid break of the resistance line shown, while a break below the support line would invalidate this trade for the time being.  Weekly chart shows recent bullish movement.

Recommended reading: James Chen’s Chart of the Day – USD/CHF.

The 1HR chart below shows our entry trendline for this trade, with the 2HR chart showing our initial target.  A break of the yellow downtrend line would signal further bullish movement and we may consider adding to the position.

Update: Trade taken at 1.0560 at break of our entry trendline.  Be cautious of the weekend gap.  Chart below.

ID 07.2 | USD/CHF Buy | LIVE | Entry: 1.0560 | SL: 1.0475

Entry @14:15 ET > We continue to hold a bearish view on the AUD/USD pair – see June market setup charts here.  Taking AUD/USD sell on TL break.  Stop above the recent high, and target at least to bottom of channel.  Charts below.

Update @23:20 ET > Resistance trendline on 15min chart below provides an indicator for a manual exit of this trade.

07.07 @09:30 ET > Moving stop to above resistance line at 0.8675 [corrected].  Chart to follow.

07.07 @12:16 ET > Updated chart below, stop is currently above red downtrend line which has provided resistance for the recent bearish movement.

07.07 @ 14:45 ET > Some members missed the corrected STOP movement, and subsequently got stopped out.  We have recommended a re-entry TL for re-entering the sell trade should they wish to do so.  Obviously if the stop gets hit before the break, do not take the re-entry sell trade.  Chart below.

LIVE | AUDUSD SELL | ENTRY: 0.8599 | SL: 0.8675

@08:30 ET > We missed original entry on this trade, however, after initially breaking our support line, price moved higher, and we are taking the trade on this break (see below).  Stop will be above recent high, with red resistance trendline providing dynamic stop.

AUDUSD 15min Entry

TRADE ID: 002 | Pending | AUDUSD SELL | ENTRY: TBD | SL: TBD

New AUD/USD entry line. See previous AUD/USD trades for long term analysis.

TRADE ID: 001 | GBPUSD | SELL | ENTRY: 1.4542 | SL: 1.4615

Daily and 4HR charts below show downtrend movement, while 1HR shows our setup. As shown, this is a countertrend-break trade. Red dynamic resistance trendline provides our stop.