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The USD/CHF pair has made a considerable bearish retracement in the past month, as noted by James Chen “this currency pair has given back virtually all of the substantial gains that it made from mid-April to early June.”  While the pair is in a long-term downtrend, as discussed below, we still feel there is room to take a counter-trend trade on this forex pair.

First chart below shows the dollar index, which is close to an uptrend support line – our trade would be further confirmed by a coinciding bounce off this line.  Monthly chart shows the long term downtrend of the pair, however, of note is the failure of the pair to make a lower low on the last dip.  We’d like to see a solid break of the resistance line shown, while a break below the support line would invalidate this trade for the time being.  Weekly chart shows recent bullish movement.

Recommended reading: James Chen’s Chart of the Day – USD/CHF.

The 1HR chart below shows our entry trendline for this trade, with the 2HR chart showing our initial target.  A break of the yellow downtrend line would signal further bullish movement and we may consider adding to the position.

Update: Trade taken at 1.0560 at break of our entry trendline.  Be cautious of the weekend gap.  Chart below.

ID 07.2 | USD/CHF Buy | LIVE | Entry: 1.0560 | SL: 1.0475

TRADE ID: 002 | Pending | AUDUSD SELL | ENTRY: TBD | SL: TBD

New AUD/USD entry line. See previous AUD/USD trades for long term analysis.

Trade Status: Open | Buy CAD/JPY | Entry: 86.27 | SL: 85.50

Charts below, but trade setup will be discussed in next post (coming soon).

Status: Open | Sell NZD/USD | Entry: 0.6713| SL: 0.6773

Update @16:15 ET > First chart shows 1HR downtrend, while 15min chart shows crossed entry line.  We are going to use red downtrend resistance line as our stop line.

We are closing our 05/04 AUDUSD sell trade, with a view to re-enter on a countertrend break.  This trade has had a great run down, and we are closing over a hundred pips more than our initial target.  While we see continued bearishness in the AUD/USD over the long term, we’d prefer to lock in this profit now and look for re-entry.

AUDUSD Exit