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The USD/CHF pair has made a considerable bearish retracement in the past month, as noted by James Chen “this currency pair has given back virtually all of the substantial gains that it made from mid-April to early June.”  While the pair is in a long-term downtrend, as discussed below, we still feel there is room to take a counter-trend trade on this forex pair.

First chart below shows the dollar index, which is close to an uptrend support line – our trade would be further confirmed by a coinciding bounce off this line.  Monthly chart shows the long term downtrend of the pair, however, of note is the failure of the pair to make a lower low on the last dip.  We’d like to see a solid break of the resistance line shown, while a break below the support line would invalidate this trade for the time being.  Weekly chart shows recent bullish movement.

Recommended reading: James Chen’s Chart of the Day – USD/CHF.

The 1HR chart below shows our entry trendline for this trade, with the 2HR chart showing our initial target.  A break of the yellow downtrend line would signal further bullish movement and we may consider adding to the position.

Update: Trade taken at 1.0560 at break of our entry trendline.  Be cautious of the weekend gap.  Chart below.

ID 07.2 | USD/CHF Buy | LIVE | Entry: 1.0560 | SL: 1.0475

Trade Status: Open | Buy CAD/JPY | Entry: 86.27 | SL: 85.50

Charts below, but trade setup will be discussed in next post (coming soon).

Trade Status: Open | Buy  USD/CAD | Entry: 1.0677 | SL: 1.0600

Continuing USD strength has broken 15min TL, see chart below.

USD/CAD Entry

After the brief private-BETA-only period of the last three months, we’ve going to resume open trade analysis and live trades here on the WTFX|Live Signal Blog.

AUD/USD

Pending Trade | Entry: TBD | Stop: TBD | Exit: TBD | Profit: TBD

Monthly chart of AUD/USD (below) shows the long term uptrend of the pair.  Whether the 2008 drop was merely retracement or the beginning of a long-term downtrend is yet to be seen.  On the weekly chart, also below, we see the strong resistance area around .9400 (red price-line) and we see the current movement’s uptrend (green line).

Eventually, and most likely sooner rather than later, price will have to break one of these lines, and that is where we hope to find a tradable opportunity for the pair.  Decreasing the timeframe to the daily chart, we see the price range the pair has been stuck in for the last few months as it moves between our two trendlines (red lines).

Because of this channel, a downward break of our green uptrend line won’t be confirmation of long term bearish movement, as it could merely be a continuation of range.  We see this price uncertainty even on the hour chart (below) as price approaches the intersection of our trendlines.  We will wait to see if price makes a strong break before looking for a trade.

GBP/JPY

Pending Trade | Entry: TBD | Stop: TBD | Exit: TBD | Profit: TBD

As the weekly chart (below) shows, the GBP/JPY pair has been entrenched in a pretty solid downtrend for a while.  The recent retracement movement, as seen on daily, may provide an opportunity for a short.  However, we will wait to see whether price hits long term downtrend line (yellow trendline on weekly chart), or a solid bearish continuation movement before taking a trade.

Jan 07 @ 18:30 EST > EUR/CAD has been entrenched in a pretty solid downtrend, seen on the Daily and 1HR charts below.  However, recently price has touched a downtrend line (see daily), and we are looking to take a counter-trend trade on a bounce of this line.  We are using downtrend resistance trendlines on the 1HR as entry.  There are two entry’s for this trade, constituting 2 trades, shorter term and longer term.

Jan 08 @ 09:15 EST > Price broke and closed above the trendline, however, we were only able to enter trade at 148.50, trade now live, stop below recent low.

Jan 11 @ 9:35 EST > Price has now moved above our second entry point, and we are adding to this trade at 149.59.  Our first trade, right now, is at over 100 pips, and we are moving the stop on this trade to breakeven, and using the 15min uptrend line on this movement as an exit point, see graphs below.

Jan 12 @ 13:45 EST > Having two positions on this pair open allows us to take profit here and wait for a retracement on the pair before possibly taking another trade.

Jan 13 @ 00:54 EST > Re-entering shorter term trade at break of the countertrend resistance line.  Initial stop is below the lowest point in the counter-trend movement, plus a few pips to bring it below the 1.5023 pivot and 15min support trendline (graph below).

Jan 13 @ 11:01 EST > Third ST trade stopped out on a spike last night.  Price is looking a bit volatile to be taking another position on this pair for the moment, but we will leave the LT trade in for now.  Price has also formed a double top on the 1HR chart, and should price begin making lower lows, we will exit the LT trade as well.

Jan 13 @ 12:09 EST > Taking a 4th trade, much shorter term than previously, off a bounce of around the 1.4950 level, where price has previously reacted to.  Should this trade be stopped out, we will consider closing the long term trade on EURCAD as well.

Jan 13 @ 2:49 EST > Closed 4th trade at BE and taking profit on long term trade1 at 1.4960.