WTFX|LIVE SIGNAL SERVICE

After the brief private-BETA-only period of the last three months, we’ve going to resume open trade analysis and live trades here on the WTFX|Live Signal Blog.

AUD/USD

Pending Trade | Entry: TBD | Stop: TBD | Exit: TBD | Profit: TBD

Monthly chart of AUD/USD (below) shows the long term uptrend of the pair.  Whether the 2008 drop was merely retracement or the beginning of a long-term downtrend is yet to be seen.  On the weekly chart, also below, we see the strong resistance area around .9400 (red price-line) and we see the current movement’s uptrend (green line).

Eventually, and most likely sooner rather than later, price will have to break one of these lines, and that is where we hope to find a tradable opportunity for the pair.  Decreasing the timeframe to the daily chart, we see the price range the pair has been stuck in for the last few months as it moves between our two trendlines (red lines).

Because of this channel, a downward break of our green uptrend line won’t be confirmation of long term bearish movement, as it could merely be a continuation of range.  We see this price uncertainty even on the hour chart (below) as price approaches the intersection of our trendlines.  We will wait to see if price makes a strong break before looking for a trade.

GBP/JPY

Pending Trade | Entry: TBD | Stop: TBD | Exit: TBD | Profit: TBD

As the weekly chart (below) shows, the GBP/JPY pair has been entrenched in a pretty solid downtrend for a while.  The recent retracement movement, as seen on daily, may provide an opportunity for a short.  However, we will wait to see whether price hits long term downtrend line (yellow trendline on weekly chart), or a solid bearish continuation movement before taking a trade.

Jan 07 @ 18:30 EST > EUR/CAD has been entrenched in a pretty solid downtrend, seen on the Daily and 1HR charts below.  However, recently price has touched a downtrend line (see daily), and we are looking to take a counter-trend trade on a bounce of this line.  We are using downtrend resistance trendlines on the 1HR as entry.  There are two entry’s for this trade, constituting 2 trades, shorter term and longer term.

Jan 08 @ 09:15 EST > Price broke and closed above the trendline, however, we were only able to enter trade at 148.50, trade now live, stop below recent low.

Jan 11 @ 9:35 EST > Price has now moved above our second entry point, and we are adding to this trade at 149.59.  Our first trade, right now, is at over 100 pips, and we are moving the stop on this trade to breakeven, and using the 15min uptrend line on this movement as an exit point, see graphs below.

Jan 12 @ 13:45 EST > Having two positions on this pair open allows us to take profit here and wait for a retracement on the pair before possibly taking another trade.

Jan 13 @ 00:54 EST > Re-entering shorter term trade at break of the countertrend resistance line.  Initial stop is below the lowest point in the counter-trend movement, plus a few pips to bring it below the 1.5023 pivot and 15min support trendline (graph below).

Jan 13 @ 11:01 EST > Third ST trade stopped out on a spike last night.  Price is looking a bit volatile to be taking another position on this pair for the moment, but we will leave the LT trade in for now.  Price has also formed a double top on the 1HR chart, and should price begin making lower lows, we will exit the LT trade as well.

Jan 13 @ 12:09 EST > Taking a 4th trade, much shorter term than previously, off a bounce of around the 1.4950 level, where price has previously reacted to.  Should this trade be stopped out, we will consider closing the long term trade on EURCAD as well.

Jan 13 @ 2:49 EST > Closed 4th trade at BE and taking profit on long term trade1 at 1.4960.

The EURJPY pair has been in a consolidation channel since April, as seen on daily chart. It’s currently on an uptrend within that channel (1HR chart). I’m looking for a break below the support line of this uptrend. If price breaks the top of the channel, I’ll consider this trade invalid. I may consider taking a small position on a break of the 15 min trendline, shown below.

Update: Price has made a solid move below the 15min support trendline, I’ve taken a small position at 137.85.  Would have liked to get filled a bit higher, but I think the risk/reward ratio is still in range for a reasonable trade here.

Update 10/26: Price came within 2 pips of stop and reversed.  It has now broken below the 1HR entry point.  This is now a longer term trade, and I’m adding to this position at the break, I call these step trades, but I’ll have to put up a post about how I handle them.  Because of how hard price moved away from the top at 138.47, stop stays where it is at 138.49, although I may even cancel this trade is price moves above the broken trendline.

EUR/JPY SELL TRADE
Status: Closed
Entry: 137.85
Step 1: 137.19
Avg Entry: 137.52
Stop: 138.49
Exit: 133.62
Result: +390 pips

Update on CAD/JPY, price broke above the trend line referenced in my last post, and has continued to move up.  The last few weeks have shown a clear downtrend on the pair, so I’m treating this movement as a countertrend break setup.  First graph here is CAD/JPY 30min showing the intraweek uptrend line, and the second is from 1H chart.  I’m looking for a confirmed break of this countertrend support line or a sign of reversal.

Update 9/29: The pair has made a tentative break below the countertrend support line.  I’ve taken a small sell position, looking for a more assertive move south or a retest of the break.  Stop placed above the recent high at 83.63.

Update 9/30: As price action approached my original stop, a bearish harmonic pattern formed on the 15 min chart, I’m going to move stop and see if the pattern plays out and, if so, will it act as a reversal for the countertrend.  Added to position in the sell zone of the pattern at 83.97.

Update 10/01:  Price did not go high enough for the second scale to trigger, but has made a nice move in the direction of this trade.  I’m going to move stop to 83.46 which is the average entry point.  I’m also going to add a limit for half my position at 82.46 (100 pips) to lock in some profit on this trade, although I expect the pair to continue falling.  I plan on letting the other half of this position run until I see a sign of reversal.

Update 2 10/01: First target hit and half this position is closed for me at +100 pips.

Update 10/02: Second target hit at +200 pips, and price made a reversal move soon after hitting this target. I may look for another sell entry next week. Total gain on trade is +150 pips.

CAD/JPY SELL TRADE
Status: Closed
Entry: 82.96
Scale 1: 83.97
Stop: 83.46 (breakeven)
Target 1: 82.46 (filled)
Target 2: 81.46 (filled)
Result: +150 pips total gain