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The USD/CHF pair has made a considerable bearish retracement in the past month, as noted by James Chen “this currency pair has given back virtually all of the substantial gains that it made from mid-April to early June.”  While the pair is in a long-term downtrend, as discussed below, we still feel there is room to take a counter-trend trade on this forex pair.

First chart below shows the dollar index, which is close to an uptrend support line – our trade would be further confirmed by a coinciding bounce off this line.  Monthly chart shows the long term downtrend of the pair, however, of note is the failure of the pair to make a lower low on the last dip.  We’d like to see a solid break of the resistance line shown, while a break below the support line would invalidate this trade for the time being.  Weekly chart shows recent bullish movement.

Recommended reading: James Chen’s Chart of the Day – USD/CHF.

The 1HR chart below shows our entry trendline for this trade, with the 2HR chart showing our initial target.  A break of the yellow downtrend line would signal further bullish movement and we may consider adding to the position.

Update: Trade taken at 1.0560 at break of our entry trendline.  Be cautious of the weekend gap.  Chart below.

ID 07.2 | USD/CHF Buy | LIVE | Entry: 1.0560 | SL: 1.0475

Entry @14:15 ET > We continue to hold a bearish view on the AUD/USD pair – see June market setup charts here.  Taking AUD/USD sell on TL break.  Stop above the recent high, and target at least to bottom of channel.  Charts below.

Update @23:20 ET > Resistance trendline on 15min chart below provides an indicator for a manual exit of this trade.

07.07 @09:30 ET > Moving stop to above resistance line at 0.8675 [corrected].  Chart to follow.

07.07 @12:16 ET > Updated chart below, stop is currently above red downtrend line which has provided resistance for the recent bearish movement.

07.07 @ 14:45 ET > Some members missed the corrected STOP movement, and subsequently got stopped out.  We have recommended a re-entry TL for re-entering the sell trade should they wish to do so.  Obviously if the stop gets hit before the break, do not take the re-entry sell trade.  Chart below.

TRADE ID: 002 | Pending | AUDUSD SELL | ENTRY: TBD | SL: TBD

New AUD/USD entry line. See previous AUD/USD trades for long term analysis.

Trade Status: Open | Sell AUD/USD | Entry: 0.8472 | SL: 0.8472

Trade Status: Open | Buy CAD/JPY | Entry: 86.27 | SL: 86.27

@22:47 ET > Moving both trades to breakeven.  More information on these trades will be posted tomorrow.

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Trade Status: Open | Buy CAD/JPY | Entry: 86.27 | SL: 85.50

Charts below, but trade setup will be discussed in next post (coming soon).